CruiseFuse

The first questions people ask when looking for a cruise deal is “When is the best time to book a cruise?” Cruise lines consider many factors when determining the price of a cruise, including brand, number of nights, cabin category, advanced purchase, seasonality and demand, to name a few.

For years airline travelers have been familiar with Revenue Management. Properly implemented, this science increases airline revenue 8% or more. In addition to Delta and United, we find grocery stores, automobile dealerships and almost every other store and industry looking to make an extra dollar.

Cruise lines are no different. The good news is you can find a cruise deal if you know when to look. Cruise lines have spent millions of dollars developing sophisticated revenue management systems that result in predictable pricing patterns. If you know the patterns, you will know when to book a cruise and have a chance at getting the best cruise deal.

Revenue Management means creating “immediacy.” If you fear the price of something you want will go up, you are more likely to buy it right now. If you’ve ever booked a cruise, you know too well that cruise lines do a good job in this area. However, prices don’t always go up. When reservations slow down or large groups cancel, prices drop dramatically. When they do, discount cabins go fast and cruise lines quickly get back to raising prices.

Every week week we analyze cabin prices for over 5,000 sailings departing over the next year. Just like you, we wondered “How far in advance should you book a cruise to get the best deal?” We researched published cabin prices from the past year to find these money-saving tips.

We identified several patterns in Suite prices available at the largest cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess, Holland-America, Celebrity and NCL. Suites are very popular with experienced cruisers and they sell fastest. Also these cabin prices increase the fastest and are least likely to drop.

The first rule of buying a Suite is book early. You get the best selection of cabins and the price is likely at or near its lowest point twelve months in advance. Unlike other categories, great last-minute bargains are a rarity here. At these cruise lines, average published rates immediately prior to sailing are $663 more per person then a year in advance.

If you didn’t plan in advance, hope still exists. For example, published Suite prices at Carnival Cruises are lowest during a brief 5 to 7-day booking window about 30-days prior to sailing. You can save almost $200 per person by booking 7-night cruises a month prior to travel versus last-minute. Average prices 6-months prior to sailing are even $55-110 more expensive then 4-weeks prior to sailing.

You pay the highest prices 14-days prior to sailing for cruises of 6-nights or more. For shorter cruises (3 to 5-nights), expect to pay a slight premium for booking a Suite 90 to 120-days in advance.

Holland-America Line has a similar booking window, but more gradual and farther in advance. Published prices for 6 to 8-Night Suites increase gradually once they go on sale until about five months prior to sailing. Prices then rates gradually decline until they bottom out about 60-days prior to departure. At that time you should go ahead and purchase your cabin. Average rates for a 6 to 8-night sailings increase $737 over the last two month prior to sailing and peak at $2612.

Princess Cruises and NCL are less extreme. Published rates change little from 360-days until about 90-days prior to sailing. However once the cruises are less then three months prior to departure, you can be confident that the published rates will go up. 6 to 8-Night Princess Suites peak during the week prior to sailing at an average of $2264, over $750 more then the price 90-days earlier. NCL Suites increase $523 from $1909 to $2432.

Royal Caribbean and Celebrity Cruises, do not display similar “safe” booking windows. Their patterns show clear and consistently upward trends as you get closer to departure. A few exceptions exist, but the best policy is to book as far in advance as possible. At Royal Caribbean, booking six months in advance will save almost $425 versus last-minute Suites. At Celebrity Cruises, last-minute shoppers pay over $1600 more then early-bookers.

It should be noted that many cruise lines maintain price protection policies. Under these policies, if you purchased a cabin and the price dropped, the cruise lines will refund the difference. Actual policies vary so check with your travel agent or cruise line for details. Armed with this cruise buying intelligence, you now know just when to check back for price drops.